The $20B question is really: How much on the hook is Cerberus liable for the unfunded pension and health care liabilities, and how much do they have shielded off in "Chrysler Holdings"?

If the lawyers are GOOD, and the liabilites don't escape the new Chrysler Holdings, Cerberus is effectively doing a <$7B bet that they can turn DC around or will chapter 11 the sucker relatively painlessly.

So my bet is Cerberus puts in $2-3B in initial development capitol, and if things work well, fine, otherwise they will put it into Chapter 11 without ever having spent more than $2-3B trying to right the ship.

It really depends on what Cerberus's intentions are. If you had asked nine years ago what Chrysler would be like today, I would have guessed that they'd be selling last-generation Benzes for proletarian money. To some extent that's true, but the LX platform still remains underutilized and the platform under the Compass and Sebring is, well, what Jonny said.

Chrysler now is a bit of an oddity in that it has no luxury brand associated with it. Without the pressure to keep its designs downmarket, perhaps Chrysler will grow upmarket and leave Dodge to build the Toyota-fighters.

My most realistic guess is that what we have in nine years will be an incremental change from what we have today. All of the Big 3 have occasionally taken platforms from overseas partners to freshen up their lineup, but on the inside and on the outside the feeling remains the same.

My advice would be for Chrysler to continue getting cozy with the South Koreans. Hyundai is a rising star and it would be wise to recreate the DSM idea with a Korean accent.

No truth to the rumor that Chrysler Holdings LLC is really going to be called DnC...Dump n' Cut Motors.

Chrysler will be a division of another car company 9 years from now or cease to exist. The Jeep Brand will live on however. And Jonny...you'll get your wish. The C and D-segment car will be resigned to the scrap heap.

Will Daimler's ~20% share of CryHoLc still allow for some info sharing, ie Diesel technology?

This feels like when BMW dumped Rover, only Daimler didn't even feel like keeping any of the pieces of Chrysler (like BMW did with mini).

I'd love to see them diversify into niches that are not being fulfuilled right now, but that would take serious R&D, and I don't see it happening.

Sad really, Chrysler has always been my favorite of the big 3.

SwatLax....yes, I think diesel technology will be shared. This has/will evolve into something similar with Chrysler and Mitsubishi had going back in the 80's and early 90's. Diesel's will become (rapidly) more prevalent in the next 1-5 years and Daimler can make some coin. Recall too that future Jeep and Mercedes SUV platforms will be common as well.

Daimler still wants to keep a stake in North America and particularly the U.S. as they have access to a distribution network for the later arrival of the SmartCar.

Its anyones guess. Its too early at the moment to determine what Cerberus has planned.

If i had to guess given the facts thus far, it looks like theyre determined to manage the company using its current resources into sustainable profitability.

Cerberus appears to have the tools and the talent to get hings done, and their company motto seems to push that they are all about rejuvinating companies and resotring them rather than parting them out.

In Chrysler's case, the company has a lot of equity that could be used to make lots of money for a long time, it would be foolish to dissolve it and sell off the pieces.

Chrystler will be co-owned by XiHau Holdings Co. and Chandakarsha Ironworks, selling locally build, re-branded Cherry's to the Middle and Far East. The number two car company in Mongolia, bitches! (Behind Amalgamated Yak.)

I see the following:
- Immediately kill off the Jeep Commander and Candyass while sprucing up the rest of the Jeep lineup, including diesels across the board. And then selling Jeep to the Koreans in 5 years for $15 billion.
- Re-focus Dodge to minivans, trucks and unrefined muscle cars with crappy plastic interiors, picking up the PT Cruiser in the process.

- Killing off the Chrysler Aspen and Crossfire, and focusing on mid-sized and bigger cars and light-duty crossovers for Chrysler.

- Oh and they will dump whatever is left of Chrysler/Dodge in seven years to a management group.

Nine years from now, Chrysler will follow Checker on the list of automobiles America doesn't make anymore.

Jeep will be owned by Honda or Toyota or Hyundai.

Dodge will sell rebadged cars from China.

Chrysler will continue going upscale but will ultimately end up all Packardbaker-like.

1. Jeep will be spun off into its own company. Whoever ends up owning Jeep will also acquire the Hummer brand.
2. All useful parts of the remaining company will be sold off with the excuse of reducing capacity. The plant in Normal, IL will be the first to go with the modern unit plants (engine, tranny, etc) going next.
3. The rest of the company will collapse under dealer lawsuits, excess capacity and union trouble after Cerberus makes its money back with 1 and 2 above.

It'll still be here as it is now. The smallest of the big three will place more emphasis on crossovers and the expansion and refinement of the LX and upcoming LY platform. The Dodge ram will also undergo major changes to compete with the gmt900's and the Tundra. The diesel powered V6's from benz will spread throughout the line up, the global 4 banger in the base models will be refined and the Hemi's will go down the road of the GM small block V8 with many variants and further development. This generation x pessimism and cynicism is all well and good but don't over do it.

I can't see much of a future for the brand, unfortunately. While I think the China theories have alot of potential, I can't see Cerberus giving up the truck and minivan line...it's the only thing that Dodge does well. Hopefully the Compass, Caliber, and PT go the way of the Edsel, but I wouldn't expect that in the next few years. Anyone have thoughts on how this will affect the upcoming tech/platform sharing with VW on their new minivan?

@HankScorpio:

When all is said and done if Jeep is ever sold off it'll go for more cash than today's sale of Chrysler to Cerberus.

The wild card is the new mini-van. Chrysler will only make one version which is basically a LWB. No SWB will exist. With the new seating arrangement in back and no competition anymore from GM and Ford in that market directly, the price will remain higher. If that misfires...yikes!, then goatrope will be correct in saying Chrysler will become Checker Cab.

In the year two thousaaaaaand aaand sixteeennn...

Chrysler continues to market their third version of the venerable Potatoe crossover. CEO Qauyle struggles to rationalize consumer's rejection of it, while shoddy Chinese Dodge econoboxes litter the streets. Meanwhile Forjeepgm Truck Corp have released the largest truck ever produced to limited but passionate fanfare. Burning only 100% recycled fish slurry it promises to be the cleanest model as well, resulting in a modest 15% increase in famine.

@powerglide:

I think youre right. We see eye to eye on a lot of issues.

@powerglide: I'll side with this guy.

@hankscorpio:

The plant in Normal, IL is owned by Mitsubishi. Chrysler sold off its stake in what was then Diamond-Star Motors almost a decade ago, and the plant is now called Mitsubishi Motor Manufacturing America (MMMA).

@scotte: I think hankscorpio meant the Belvidere Assembly plant. I don't agree with this prediction BTW.

Jeep will go to the highest bidder who wants to take on what's left after Cerberus and the UAW face off.

Minivans could be spun off as well to a company which doesn't already have a competitive entry - GM, Ford, Nissan, VW?

The rest is doomed - think of Rover.

I'm waiting for the supplier shoe to fall onto the floor. Nothing has been said about honoring current POs/unit prices, etc.. one way or another. I hope these investment folks don't decided to get a fast 10% return via the supply base.

There is so much good history they could tap into though, even in the recent past.

Bring the Plymouth brand back to face the Koreans, let Chrysler produce the crazy go-for broke concepts it used to champion. Let Dodge make balls-out sports cars, fun econoboxes, and famly-friendly spacewagons, and let Jeep take care of the SUV's.

@Seth L:

That's what I say. Once Wolfgang Bernhard is done with his 2 year no competition clause from VW, I believe he can champion Chrysler into a very, very serious competitor. It would also be nice if Cerebrus was able to come in and clean house with the UAW and re-hire non-union workers, such as Toyota has.

And to those of you who say they will sell off Jeep, I have to disagree. The Jeep name is almost as recognizable through-out the nation as Coca-Cola. I seriously doubt Jeep will be sold off by itself.

Plymouth will be resurrected to fight in the family car business. Dodge will focus purely on muscle, muscle, and more muscle. Chrysler will take a page from Cadillac's book and try to move over to performance luxury to try and chip away at the European companies. Jeep will stay Jeep, but will recapture SUV sales when non-petroleum fuels are made widely available.

Curse of the Jeep continues - anyone who has laid hands on that brand has died. Willys developed Jeep, got bought out by Kaiser. Kaiser quit the auto business and sold the Jeep to AMC. Renault ate AMC and Chrysler swallowed the ruins after Renault pulled out of North America. Daimler-Benz wanted Jeep, acquired ChryCo and now they're in the toilet.

Let's push Jeep onto Toyota. It has survived the Germans - TWICE!

I bet it can beat the Japanese again as well.

Seriously,
Plymouth needs to be resurrected to fight the Japanese competition. Dodge to fight the American competition and Chrysler to fight the European competition.
Someone get Lee Iacocca back...

*Sigh*

The minivan issue IS interesting - especially considering that DCX/ChryslerCo is acting as a tier one supplier to VW for the upcoming "bus".

Where will Chrysler be in 9 years...........not in my driveway. : )

I think the strategy will be two fold

(1): Try to run the company by cutthroating jobs, costcut suppliers even if China becomes appeasible as a vendor source, and Break the UAW. Financial based companies despise unions and feel as if they bring down value of a company. I believe they are going to experience a very nasty fight that may kill the company but be the black eye enough for GM and Ford to see the weak points and learn from this and hit harder after the dirty work was done.

(2): If this doesn't work, then they will sell it off piece by piece. It has been heavily rumored that Nissan wants Jeep (Nissan weak in America for SUV's), the Minivans (Nissan weak in America), and the Dodge Truck line (the high cost of the Titan makes them very uncompetitive compared to GM, Ford, and Dodge). If they have to take all of Dodge in the deal, expect them to scrap the car line, sell the tooling and badge engineer Nissans as Dodges.

I think Plymouth is as dead as fluid drive. Jeep will go to a third party. Chrysler/Dodge- I'll have to study and get back with ya.

how do you say chrysler in chinese?

The other thing I've been thinking of is this deal could spell the end of the UAW in America. If the UAW for Chrysler strikes over lower concessions and Cerebrus goes in after them with guns blazing and manage to finally break the back of the union, Ford and the General will realize it can be done.

Truth About Cars has an interesting read up about the possible collaberation between Cerebrus and Magna. Seems like it may be a possibility.

Isn't it Daimler, not "Dailmer?"

They will burn in hell for killing Plymouth, Eagle, and the DSM.

Jeep died when they killed the Inline 6. Period.

@Volvo144: rice-rer