This Sunday, the IndyCar Series will be taking the green flag at the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg for the first race of the 2022 season — and this year promises to be a good one. We have six rookies competing for Rookie of the Year, there’s a first-time championship defender looking to maintain his crown, and anyone can win at the Indy 500. But we’re still going to try to make some predictions anyway.
I’ll be offering my own opinions, and my delightful managing editor Lalita Chemello will be offering hers. Because cars haven’t actually hit the track yet, we have pretty much no idea how anything will play out — but that’s where the fun is! And we can come back at the end of the year to see just how wrong — or right — we were.
And, of course, I want to see all of your predictions down in the comments.
Elizabeth Blackstock
I’ve been torn when it comes to making these predictions. Do I want to be serious in order to demonstrate my wealth of open-wheel knowledge? Do I want to just meme it up because I have literally no idea how this championship is going to play out? I don’t know. I think it’s time to opt for the classic: A good mix of both.
Grand Prix of St. Pete Winner: Colton Herta
Colton Herta is an absolute badass of a driver, and I think he’s going to be coming into the start of the 2022 season on a high. He’s spent his off-season being the rumored Formula One driver should Michael Andretti actually get his prospective F1 team off the ground, and I think he’s going to have something to prove. Plus, he’s just damn good at street circuits.
Indy 500 Champion: Josef Newgarden
This is more just me hoping, praying, and crying than anything else. Newgarden has been one of my favorite drivers since I first started watching IndyCar, and I just want him to win the Indy 500 so dang bad. The fact that I’ve said this will now preclude him from doing anything of the sort, and the Indy 500 is so unpredictable that it can be hard to make any assumptions. But a girl can dream.
Overall Season Champion: Patricio O’Ward
I have to admit that I’m a little biased. I like McLaren, and I like O’Ward as both a racer and as a person — but I do genuinely think that 2022 is going to be a good one for the duo. O’Ward has demonstrated some serious race craft in his two years as a full-time driver, but he’s also struggled with consistency. His great races are interspersed with absolutely disastrous days — but I think 2022 is going to be O’Ward’s year. He’s been in the series long enough to mature within it and understand how to salvage a bad day. McLaren has proven to be a championship quality team. I think this is the year O’Ward gets it done and takes the title.
Rookie of the Year: Christian Lundgaard
Man, the ROTY battle this year has me torn. There are some seriously impressive young drivers hitting the track for the first time this year — but I think the ROTY honors will go to the driver in the best team, and I think Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is the best option, which means Lundgaard (whose 12th-place finish on his debut at the IMS road course was also quite impressive) will take the cake. Sorry, A. J. Foyt and Dale Coyne — I love you, but I don’t think it’s happening this year.
The Team to Beat: Chip Ganassi Racing
It’s wild to make all these predictions regarding non-CGR drivers and yet still pick it as the team to beat — but I’ll stand by it. Marcus Ericsson, Alex Palou, and Scott Dixon are all formidable beasts in their own right, and putting them all on the same team together is, as the kids say, “goated.” CGR has shown a consistency that I think Andretti and Penske have lacked, and those are the only two other teams I could really see stepping up for the “team to beat” prize.
Best Race of the Year: Iowa Doubleheader
It took all my self-restraint not to say the Indy 500, but I’m going with the other ovals instead. Iowa always puts on one hell of a show, and I don’t think it’ll be any different this year.
Most Impressive Driver: Colton Herta
I know, I know — it sounds weird to pick O’Ward as champion and Herta as most impressive driver, but hear me out: Herta is going to have a heavy weight on his shoulders this year. Everyone’s going to be talking to him about F1, asking him for his opinions, expecting him to perform well to gain the super license points he needs to enter the series. And I think that’s going to make for some absolutely stunning races, the ones that leave you with a dropped jaw and a lack of words. I also think it’s going to make for some stunning fuck-ups — poor starts, awful qualifying positions, stuff like that — that will only go to make for more impressive drives. While I think O’Ward is going to have consistency, I think Herta is going to be doing battle with high expectations that will give him a topsy-turvy, but ultimately incredible, season.
Lalita Chemello
I feel more than out of the loop going into this 2022 season. It’s not for a lack of following and trying — just one feels relatively off when their IndyCar live race attendances go from near half the calendar to almost none for two years. I’m aiming to change that for 2022, and with my predictions, I’m planning on it being a whirlwind of an IndyCar season as well.
Grand Prix of St. Pete Winner: Helio Castroneves
This man is unstoppable. Helio Castroneves is just coming off of an overall/DPi category win at the Rolex 24 at Daytona to return for a full 2022 IndyCar season with the same team, Meyer Shank Racing. Let’s also note he won his fourth Indy 500 last year, AND won his first Rolex watch with an overall win in 2021. I don’t know what Helio tops his breakfast cereal with, but if Winner’s Flakes are a thing, he’s the only one with a box, and I think he’ll be coming into 2022 with that same unstoppable power. (That’ll show Penske.)
Indy 500 Champion: Colton Herta
2022 could be the year Colton Herta gets his 500 win. In 2019, he won the first running at COTA, as a rookie, making him the youngest-ever IndyCar race winner. Just looking at his 2021 stats, he placed fifth in the championship with 3 wins, and 4 other top-5 finishes. Need I say more? I think Herta is more than ready to overtake the other 32 Indy 500 entries for that prestigious win. It would also look really nice when he heads off to Europe with Andretti for F1.
Overall Season Champion: Romain Grosjean
I’ll admit, I was likely Andretti’s Romain Grosjean’s least-likely fan while he was in Formula 1. But his 2021 season in IndyCar helped me to recognize that his years of what I thought was whining, was just pure frustration in being on a sub-par, mediocre team (*cough* Haas). I truly get it now. That realization also helped place him as one of my favorite drivers on the grid. The man is talented, as we saw last year, with Grosjean nabbing one podium, four top-five finishes and six top 10s, and was close to a win on a couple of occasions. This year, he’s running full-time for Andretti Autosport, and I think the man has finally gotten his sea legs in the ever-challenging IndyCar. While the ovals may present some challenges as he faces those for a first-time, I expect many more wins and top-fives. Viva la Grosjean!
Rookie of the Year: Kyle Kirkwood
Elizabeth is right, this is a tough one to pick, but I think Kyle Kirkwood may be the one rookie worth watching this season. Kirkwood is already pulling double-duty, having been one of the drivers behind the wheel of the No. 14 Vasser-Sullivan Lexus at the Rolex 24 at Daytona last month, which just missed the podium for the GTD Pro Class. As Elizabeth detailed on her post of this year’s IndyCar Rookie Class, he has a list of championship wins in the last six years. While A.J. Foyt’s team has not been a place to flourish as a driver in recent years, if anyone might be able to make an impression or dent in the standings for Foyt, I think Kirkwood could do it and deserves some recognition and merit on that alone.
The Team to Beat: Meyer Shank Racing
[See Helio Castroneves entry above.]
Meyer Shank Racing is in rare form coming into this 2022 IndyCar season. With that, I have no doubts they’ll make a mark. In just 12 months, MSR has two Rolex wins, and an Indy 500 win under its belt. With both Castroneves and Simon Pagenaud returning with what was once considered a “scrappy team,” this year it’s not a matter of being a team with something to prove, it’s more MSR is a team with a winning formula.
Best Race of the Year: Big Machine Music City Grand Prix (Nashville)
I’m honestly just glad to see what could be a normal IndyCar season return, but one race stands out on the calendar, and that’s Nashville. Any new track comes with a learning curve, and this street course definitely presented its “challenges” in 2021. With one attempt under the belt, I’m guessing we see a few drivers that might get a little over confident, and will learn some humility because of it.
Most Impressive Driver: Conor Daly
If there is one thing that always worked well for Conor Daly’s IndyCar career, it’s been his time working with Ed Carpenter Racing. Maybe everyone came to their senses when it came down to deciding drivers for 2022, and I’m thankful, because it’s makes for a combo worth keeping an eye on. Sure, Daly’s had a string of bad luck in previous seasons, but that changed in 2019 with his run in the Indy 500... landing a 10th place finish and running in the top five for a considerable distance. Perhaps his #BadLuckConor phase is finally over, and he might get a chance to show what he really can do as a driver.