In case you needed more proof that we live in a near-apocalyptic cyberpunk dystopia, the United States’ planetary defense office has warned about a possible collision from an asteroid with the potential to level cities. The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a one in 43 chance of hitting Earth — and that number seems to rise every time NASA updates its figures. Y’know, in case you didn’t have enough things to worry about.
The phrase “planetary defense” may sound like science fiction, but it’s a real department within NASA. Rather than threats from Romulans or Borg, though, the real Planetary Defense Coordination Office protects against impacts from asteroids (presumably the office has Bruce Willis on retainer). Recently, PDCO has been tracking 2024 YR4 to determine whether or not it’ll hit us — and how much damage it’ll do if it lands here. The asteroid is predicted to make its closest approach in 2032, when it’ll have a 2.2 percent chance of hitting us. That sounds low, but it’s the greatest risk we’ve had in decades.
Perhaps more interesting than the raw chance of a hit is the change in that chance. Each time NASA checks, the number seems to creep ever higher — a couple tenths of a percent here, a few more there. The chance has gone from one in 83 to one in 53, and most recently to one in 43. With the closest approach scheduled for late December of 2032, there’s a lot of time for that number to climb.
Clearly, NASA needs to start teaching oil drillers how to be astronauts right now. If there’s one chance humanity has for survival, it’s the clashing personalities of Ben Affleck and Bruce Willis up there on that rock, risking their lives that we might all survive. There is no better option than this.