This Is How Your 2021 Automotive Predictions Fared This Year

I thought we'd all move on from Elon Musk in 2021. I was wrong.

At the start of 2021, I asked you fine folks of Jalopnik for your automotive predictions for the upcoming year. Would 2021 be the year of the flying car? Would we see more cheap vehicles? Today, we’re revisiting some of those predictions to see how they fared.

My own personal prediction turned out to be wildly incorrect. As you may recall, my prediction revolved around Elon Musk:

My prediction is either a positive or negative one, depending on where you currently stand. 2021 is finally going to be the year society collectively challenges the Elon Musk myth.
But the reality of the situation is that Elon Musk is just a human. He’s done some cool stuff. He’s also kind of a mess. He’s had good ideas, but he’s also not really a visionary. And I think 2021 is going to be the year we finally all get on the same page about that one.

Well. I was a little too generous with that one. Many folks still believe Elon Musk is the best thing since sliced bread, a delicious carb that can do no wrong. My parents didn’t name me Cassandra for a reason!

We’re going to look at your automotive predictions now, though, and see who hit the nail on the head and who was just as misguided as me.

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Cheap Cars. Status: Maybe There Was One?

Along with Martin, Dutch Gunderson, Lana and Sally Decker predicted:

My complete wild-ass guess is that someone will figure out that there is space at the bottom end of the market for something that is better than what is there now.

And they’re not totally wrong. Cars are still obscenely expensive, and prices are continuing to grow, but at least one automaker has found a way to sell a cheap, practical vehicle for (mostly) under $20,000: Ford, thanks to the Maverick. The compact hybrid truck was big news this year, and the base-model version is a great fit for a more diverse audience than you’d get from a full-size pickup. But that... was mainly it.

3 / 12

Car Payment Defaults. Status: Incorrect-ish.

codfangler looked at current market trends — by which I mean made a good guess — for 2021:

My prediction, based on little but conjecture, as has been the fashion recently, is that economic and financial issues will lead to a large increase in defaults/late payments on car loans. While not as monumental a problem as the mortgage crisis of a decade or so ago, this will be a big deal which could adversely affect automobile sales.

While I’m sure there were plenty of folks struggling to make car payments this year, but we haven’t seen any data that auto sales have suffered due to defaulted or late payments. Instead, auto sales have suffered for plenty of other reasons, including supply chain bottlenecks, chip shortages, and that one boat that got stuck in the Suez.

4 / 12

EVs And Bronco Hype. Status: Correct-ish.

V10omous made some bold predictions for 2021:

-Fewer EVs will be sold than “futurists” and journalists predict, just as is the case every year. The Biden administration’s upcoming regulatory changes will not meaningfully affect the sales growth of EVs, for the simple reason that most consumers don’t want them. You can lead a horse to water, etc etc etc.
-The Bronco will not live up to the insane expectations put on it.
-Naturally aspirated engines, RWD performance cars, and manual transmissions will continue their inexorable march to the grave.

Plenty of auto journalists have continued to bang the EV drum, but as we’ve seen, nothing has caused a truly drastic increase in sales — not even President Biden’s mild attempts at an infrastructure bill designed to beef up EV infrastructure. Worldwide EV sales did increase 80 percent in 2021 compared to 2020, but we’re still talking about 5.6 million EVs in comparison to 66 million cars sold overall. Not huge.

As for the Bronco? People absolutely loved it, but we found it to be a Mostly Okay vehicle. You win some, you lose some.

As for V10omous’ last point, well...

5 / 12

More Dogs? Status: Unclear.

Perhaps my favorite prediction of them all came from Lars:

Car ads will feature more dogs than ever in 2021. Got a new dog, well you need a new car! Don’t you love your dog?

It seemed to be quite the astute prediction, considering the fact that plenty of folks bought themselves a pandemic dog. But did 2021 feature more dogs in car commercials than ever before? I can’t say I know. I’m running the numbers now and will get back to you later, Lars.

6 / 12

How About Those Markups? Status: Correct.

Jalop commenter dolsh delivered some hard truths among their many suggestions:

- Highly sought after vehicles will continue to trigger high markups (sorry Bronco)
- There will continue to be racist assholes all over the place
- We’ll be wearing masks for most of the year

Masks? Yep. Racists? Always. But extreme dealer markups went absolutely wild this year, and Jalopnik reported on plenty of stories that followed that trend. The most egregious of them were the $96,000 Toyota RAV4 and the $50,000 Kia K5.

7 / 12

The French Exchange. Status: Incorrect.

I can see where Forkish was coming from with these predictions, but sadly, they just didn’t turn out to be true:

1) The Jalopnik list of cars that died in 2021 will be longer than the 2020 list.
2) Stellantis will announce they’re bringing over some French cars with Dodge/Chrysler badges that in a few short years will be discontinued because the future is bloated SUV’s.
3) Biden’s going to announce getting a new presidential car because they’re not going to be able to get the smell of fast food and the spray tan stains out of the old one. Think of that episode of Seinfeld with the car smell that doesn’t come out, like that. The “news” will be that it won’t be black, but something on the metallic silver range.

I want to focus on point No. 2 on this list, because as it turns out, Stellantis decided in March that it wasn’t going to bother bringing any French cars to the United States. The reason? No one was interested. Sorry, Forkish.

Interestingly, though, we saw fewer dead cars in 2021 than we did in 2020. How about that?

8 / 12

Off-Road Subarus. Status: Mostly Correct!

Mark Longoria came in with a big prediction for 2021:

Subaru will realize that there is a substantial market for a Outbacks, Foresters, & Crosstreks with additional ride height, A/T tires, & skid plates and offer a trim level or package from the factory with these.

And turned out to be Mostly Right! For 2022, Subaru will offer Wilderness trims on both the Outback and the Forester, which adds better suspension, more ride height, and all-terrain tires. The Crosstrek, though, doesn’t gain that trim.

9 / 12

Big Grille Dreams. Status: Incorrect.

Oh, Pitchblende, how I wish your predictions were correct:

Car makers will run out of space on the fronts of cars for mahoossive grills and so they’ll start putting them on the sides.
300 more electric hypercars will be unveiled and we still won’t care.
Makers of 300+mph road cars will say “You know what, I’ve had enough of all this guff and I’ll make a car you can actually drive on the road.”

What I wouldn’t pay to see the massive BMW nostril grille decorating the side of an absolutely goofy SUV.

10 / 12

Big Trucks. Status: Correct.

newnamesameme predicted:

White guys will continue to buy already huge trucks, lift them, and then go to teh mall in them in very large numbers.

It’s me, I’m white guys.

11 / 12

The All-Seeing Eye

Gif: Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

We had to end with 4x98's predictions, which was simply so spot-on that I can’t help but wonder if the world has grown too predictable.

- Flying cars will be “only” 3 years away
- Americans will be denied access to
- Tesla will continue to sell cars with shitty build quality while the stock rises off the back of the random spoutings of it’s mentally ill seeming founder, Semi/Cybertruck/etc will continue to be notable by absence
- Jalopnik will continue to highlight random youtube car videos, 3 days after youtube puts them in front of me
- A new version of the VW bus will be rumoured to be released real soon now, possibly electric and people will lose their minds before it fizzles
- will enact draconian and impossible emissions standards that are due to kill all gasoline cars by the year
- F1 will continue to be its shitty, unrestrained self on all levels
- McLaren will release 12 different trim levels, I’m sorry, new models
- E-real racing will continue not to satisfy despite massive efforts
- Video game sports will continue to try to be taken as a Real Thing
- FCA will have a rummage in the closet to find the one remaining model they haven’t stuck a hellcat engine in yet, then stick a hellcat engine in it
- Toyota will continue to insist hydrogen is The Next Big Thing
- Having obsessed over every aspect of cars, Torch will be forced to start a society of speedometer typeface aficionados
- A slew of new supercars that are just all samey and awful to look at will be released
- Some ‘ring lap bullshit from manufacturers
I think that about covers it. Oh, and Kinja, amazingly, will continue to suck beyond the ability of humans to comprehend.

Applause for you, friend.

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