That's one hell of a "niche"...

petersterncan

Umm... NO. *I* said that... and up until now, all YOU'VE been saying is how the vast majority *won't* and the only people who do/will buy hybrids are some wierd green fringe part of society. And all you've been saying up until now is that hybrids WILL NOT be economically viable.

But *NOW* you are saying they will be?

I seems that I've make more progress than I expected with you.

Gas going up and tech going down? Gee... did you think of that all by yourself? Certainly you didn't hear that from *anybody* else... ummm... like me for example.

"As to the sales, I was the one that TOLD YOU the PRIUS sales are 1%, (remember the 160K out of 16 mil you couldn't follow)."

And *I* was the one that told *YOU* the most recent sales numbers that show that Prius sales now seem to be running closer to 20,000 a month. Hmmm... What's 20,000*12... Gosh it's... 240,000 (!). So by the end of the year, the Prius just might be 1.5%... Not including all the other hybrids. Wanna bet that Toyota and other *won't* to try and grow hybrid sales?

petersterncan

People don't want to die.

Like a retard you point out "but some people commit suicide" "

Duuh...When I said that people will adapt or die, I was making a reference to Darwinism/Evolution... you moron.

petersterncan

"ou fail to answer my simple question.

WHAT THE FUCK IS STOPPING PEOPLE FROM BUYING HYBRIDS?"

Already answered previously...
"So why the hell AREN'T people buying them then?"

You can't buy what's not available... which is the exact reason why the number of Chevy Volts sold is exactly zero at the moment. And going back to the Prius... supply was so tight a while ago that it was measured in *hours*."
...
"And it's the new technology bits that are constraining Ford and others on the hybrid end of things... I know that from talking to *engineers*. It definitely ISN'T a lack of auto assemblers or a lack of interest that's keeping hybrid sales down."

"but THE COST IT TOO HIGH. That is why hybrids DON'T MAKE MONEY, "

Which is why people are buying them but regularly have to wait a long time for their orders to be filled AND Toyota says they ARE making money on their hybrids... like the Prius. Tell me, do do also think they lose money on their Lexus Hybrids?

"That's not opinion, IT'S FACT."

No... Yours is just an opinion... a wrong one. It is idiotic to think current hybrid production numbers are truly reflective of the potential of the market when there is THE FACT is that key components like batteries being capacity-contrained. As capacity ramps up (which is happening as I type), we will be looking at waaaay more than 3% over the next 2-5 years. As I said... You think that hybrid market share will *still* be at that level when GM gets the Volt and two-mode hybid vehicles fully ramped up?

You can swear, curse and insult all you want. The point is, *I* have presented a reasoned argument supported by 3rd parties. YOU haven't provided anything to support your views.

What exact vehicle do *you* drive again?

I recall you mentioning that you used to have a BMW 3-series... for 6 months... LOL. Did someone give you a freebee or did the payments almost bankrupt you?

petersterncan

People (I have been very clear in saying this refers to "the vast majority") ARE NOT PAYING A PREMIUM FOR HYBRIDS. This is the facts, despite what "an expert" on everything like you wants to think.

As to the sales, I was the one that TOLD YOU the PRIUS sales are 1%, (remember the 160K out of 16 mil you couldn't follow). I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you think you've "taught me" hybrid sales are more. No shit, there's more than the Prius out there? Who knew. I was using that as the example as it is what your mind is clearly obsessed with.

You fail to answer my simple question.

WHAT THE FUCK IS STOPPING PEOPLE FROM BUYING HYBRIDS?

I concede people WANT hybrids.
I agree they want better mileage.
They want less pollution.
They want to look green.
SO WHY ONLY 2% OF THE MARKET BUYS THEM???????

THEY AREN'T ECONOMICALLY VIABLE TO THE OTHER 98%. MY EXACT POINT.

So, until you can answer this (you can't), you are wrong. You can continue to be a jackass and link to nonsense, or talk about the tiny bit of the market willing to pay for green looks right now, etc, but YOU ARE WRONG.

Try this analogy, if you can follow (I'm beginning to think you can't follow anything).

Here's my statement:

People don't want to die.

Like a retard you point out "but some people commit suicide" and link to a table showing 1% of the population kills themselves. You declare me wrong and you right. This is no less absurd than your ongoing bullshit about hybrids.

No shit some people will pay anything for anything. Until that is a real portion, and 1-2, even 3% is nowhere fucking near the majority of people, statements like my point ARE CORRECT (to anyone smart enough to realize the term "people" doesn't mean "every person on the face of the Earth, past and present") You continually try and extrapolate a tiny portion of the population into generalizations. I make statements in the sense of agreement with the vast majority.

Oh, and the technology you're so "expert" in. It's available, but THE COST IT TOO HIGH. That is why hybrids DON'T MAKE MONEY, and the volumes are low. It's so simple but you think it's somehow proving that people are willing to pay more when it's the opposite.

Oh, and yeah good work pointing out future hybrids will have more sales. I haven't been clear enough in ALREADY STATING THIS. It will be because THEY WILL BE ECONOMICALLY VIABLE. Gas is going UP, and tech is GOING DOWN. Therefore, people will buy them as they return POSITIVE NPV.

Please quit. You think you have it all figured out, but most of what you state as "evidence" supports my point.

PEOPLE (remember, the VAST MAJORITY, not 100%) WON'T BUY HYBRIDS UNTIL THEY ARE ECONOMICALLY VIABLE. That is the facts. It's true now (hence 2% market share) and it will continue to be true. All that will change is the business case for hybrids gets better with new tech and pricier gas.

Oh, and the fact you think I'm 20 years older than you makes me guess you are straight out of college, and still full of the "I know everything" attitude that most lose soon after their teens. Unless you're 7, then I've got 2 decades on you.

I'm done responding to this bullshit. You are so wrong it's sad. I can't even imagine what is driving you to insist people are willing to pay a big premium for something that exists right now and people clearly aren't. That's not opinion, IT'S FACT.

rlj676

Magic was one reason I *didn't* give... You should *really* get back on your meds since you're reading things/seeing that aren't there.

petersterncan

And my point is that you are WRONG... because if you were right, then the Prius (especially the 1st gen model), Escape hybrid, Civic Hybrid and other models would all have been flops... and certainly the Prius wouldn't be #11 in overall US sales. So far, the only hybrid flops are the Insight (too tiny to be mainstream) and the Accord V6 (expensive for what was a mild hybrid.

At least I've stopped you from saying/implying that hybrids only make up 1% (when 2-3% is reality...for now) of the total market. And I got you to concede that some hybrids have become profitable. In spite of your kicking, screaming and namecalling, I'm making progress with you.

"THEY ARE STILL ONLY 2% OF THE MARKET. It takes a truly ignorant half-wit to think this is NOT DUE TO LACK OF ECONOMIC VIABILITY."

But what do you think the market for hybrids will be once GM ramps up the hybrid stuff they're coming out with by 2010? I'm not just talking about the Volt... that car is just a 'halo vehicle' sideshow. I'm talking about all the trucks and perhaps cars that will have their two mode hybrid system... that's the real action that'll save GM's ass from CAFE.

Here's a lesson in economic viability for you... what's one of the most profitable car companies in the world who has less than 1/2 of the market share of the Prius? Any ideas? Didn't think so.

Porsche. They're tine and exceptionally profitable with much less than 1% of the market. How can this be? I *could* explain it... but would you understand the answer?

Oh and they're coming out with a hybrid Cayenne as well.

And their little piddly non-existant share of the market is so "crap" that they had they only had the financial ability... ummm.. to take a controlling stake in VW... a company several times their size.

You see, VW was big, but not too profitable. Kind of like the situation Ford,GM and Chrysler are in. What good is being big if you're only making big losses?

Being big or small or having 1% or 50% of the market has very little to do with economic viability... or profitability. Plant/resource utilization, for example, is a much more critical measure.

But you'd understand that if you understood Economics.

"So why the hell AREN'T people buying them then?"

You can't buy what's not available... which is the exact reason why the number of Chevy Volts sold is exactly zero at the moment. And going back to the Prius... supply was so tight a while ago that it was measured in *hours*.

And I provided links that support that... and if you don't like the links I provided, perhaps you can provide some of your own. Oh that's right... you don't have any and you "don't need them" 'cause you work in the treasury where I'm sure all the planning, engineering and manufacturing gets done.

When I assess companies for investing, I look for executives like you (who only know how to look backwards instead of forwards) so I know what companies to avoid.

It's clear you don't know the first thing about manufacturing and what it takes to ramp up production... particularly when it comes to new technology... the field *I* work in.

And it's the new technology bits that are constraining Ford and others on the hybrid end of things... I know that from talking to *engineers*. It definitely ISN'T a lack of auto assemblers or a lack of interest that's keeping hybrid sales down.

Technology is something I know well. And manufacturing is something I'm also quite familiar with. These are two areas that I have no doubt you are completely illiterate in. And God help any company that depends on you to make decisions in these areas.

And I'm sure you have a nice house, nice car, tiny debt and a comfortable life... But I strongly suspect you're at least 20 years older than I am.

I'll have way more than that in 20 years old man.

petersterncan

Expect them to keep going up. That's nearly entirely due to gas price increases making them economically viable to many more people. At $5/gallon they'll pay back that investment pretty quick.

Or...you can think sales are increasing cuz peter says people like em so they'll just sell magically. (Despite the overwhelming evidence against this)

rlj676

camp6ell

camp6ell

My point is people aren't/won't pay the premium for a hybrid over a comparable car. This is so painfully obvious it's sad you are agreeing with him. It's not that it costs more than every car like you two are implying I said. They cost more than people (again, 98% of people) are willing to pay for the "hybrid benefits", because it doesn't return enough savings. They'd rather pay a premium for a nicer, non-hybrid. Well, except for the 2% or so buying hybrids rather than the list of cars you so helpfully provided to support MY POINT.

So, if you think the Prius or any hybrid actually does return more savings than it's price premium for the public, that'd imply the public HATES hybrids if they'd rather lose money than drive one based on the sales numbers.

Yeah, I single handedly cost Ford $12.6 B in 06, my bad.

rlj676

$28-30k Acura TSX
$29-38k Audi A4
$32-41k BMW 3-series
$19-27k Chevy Malibu
$19-28k Chrysler Sebring
$19-25k Dodge Avenger
$18-25k Ford Fusion
$20-30k Honda Accord
$18-26k Hyundai Sonata
$31-34k Lexus IS250
$19-28k Mazda6
$19-26k Mercury Milan
$21-27k Mitsubishi Galant
$18-28k Nissan Altima
$18-27k Pontiac G6
$28-42k Saab 9-3
$20-25k Saturn Aura
$24-28k Subaru Impreza WRX
$20-34k Subaru Legacy
$18-28k Toyota Camry
$24-30k Volvo S40
$18-24k VW Rabbit/GTi
$17-25k VW Jetta/GLi
$24-38k VW Passat
I'm not saying they're all cross-shoppable for everybody, but each is cross-shoppable for somebody.
you make it sound like it's 4 times the price of the next most expensive car out there. instead it's right there, bang smack in the middle of mainstream prices. and it's more economical to boot.

camp6ell

camp6ell

Hybrids (outside of a few maybe) are not profitable, to get more of anything that is in demand, like their batteries, costs more, making them less profitable. I know firsthand the profitability of a popular hybrid. You can speculate all day, but you're wrong. Or, you can link to bs articles written by someone who knows no more than you(very little it would seem). You just can't except that 2, hell 3% of the market is NOT MEANINGFUL.

And you've now proven you can't grasp the most blatant of sarcasm. There are still way too many workers sitting on slowed/idle lines making my point that capacity is not an issue as you claim.

So answer this than as in your mind the public is willing to pay this premium for hybrids. I'll agree that people would rather drive a hybrid than not.
They'd rather better gas mileage than not.
They'd rather pollute less.
They'd rather "feel and look green".
Yet despite this, THEY ARE STILL ONLY 2% OF THE MARKET. It takes a truly ignorant half-wit to think this is NOT DUE TO LACK OF ECONOMIC VIABILITY. So why the hell AREN'T people buying them then? Please enlighten me how you are so right, and people will pay for these things. Yet magically, they aren't. 2% is not in anyway referred to as "people". That's a NICHE, a SEGMENT, whatever you will. It is so far from the MAJORITY it is funny, as is your whole theory here.

So... you are either a troll and know I'll waste my time with you, or you are total dip-shit? Which is it?

As to my success. I have nice house, nice car, tiny debt, comfortable life. I've achieved enough fast enough to not worry. Further, the OEM you mention is a vehicle OEM, not some tiny supplier as you hope. When I talk about cost structure, etc, it is from the horses mouth, not the horses ass which I'd equate to your wild guesses and bozo internet articles.

rlj676

"This must be your half-assed attempt at a straw man, as this has nothing to do with my statement that I like hybrids as long as they grow from true demand (gas prices) not gov't mandate."

An attempt at a straw man? Do you even know what that expression means? I bet you know it as well as you know NPV and Economics... like the Economics questions you answered with a big "I don't remember" even though you claimed to be tops in Ecomonics in College... Ha ha ha ha... questions that I, as an Economics NON-Expert have no problems answering.... you need to start taking your meds. I can write a book on YOU doing that.

"you've got links showing that hybrids are in demand but there's not enough to go around. Gee, I wonder why. I'm sure there's not enough workers now to build them. The industry is so undercapacitized right now they just can't build enough cars..."

Err... yeah... not enough auto workers. I'm sure that's the problem... 'cause all those workers downsized from Ford, GM and Chrysler disappeared into thin air after they took their buyout offers... 8-| And it couldn't possibly be because of a shortage of BATTERIES and hybrid-related materials (as cited in the provided links). Couldn't be that cause it would be too... umm... REALISTIC...

"I like hybrids as long as they grow from true demand (gas prices) "

And demand that comes from just wanting a car that pollutes less and gives better driving range or has a desirable image is "untrue" demand, eh? So in effect, you're saying you hate most hybrids... particularly the ones sold in 2005 and earlier when gas prices were lower and there was even less of a Gasoline-economic agrument... Your feelings that tell you that "you like hybrids" don't seem to translate into what you say or do.

"What's that expression about people that can, do… etc."

This is what I mean when you have memory issues and should probably be on some sort of meds. You can't even remember common sayings to support what you want to say. Yes... I can debunk your points of view with supporting evidence... and I did. Apparently you don't have the same ability... at least as far as providing supporting evidence.

"I guess from your "wild" economic success ("huge" house debt, shitty car, etc.) you're not quite as savvy as you think."

You know nothing about my success aside from the little bit I've told you. But no, I'm not Bill Gates, Warren Buffett or a Middle East Oil-Baron prince with a harem... but I might be lying ;-D But I'm savvy enough to know about, use and manipulate NPV...

And aside from your allusion that you "work in the Treasury at a major automotive OEM" (Is it Collins & Aikman...one of the big OEMs in Chapter 11... perhaps?), you've been distinctly silent on *your* success.

And I wouldn't say that Saabs are shitty cars too loudly around here if I were you...

petersterncan

You are the one detached from reality. You think that the piddly ass hybrid sales back up your story, but they don't. They show some people will spend for green, I agree. They show the VAST MAJORITY won't, my point as well. So again, you are just arguing for the sake of it.

"You are detatched from reality. The CAFE law has passed. The GM ultra V8 has been cancelled and RWD program scaled back. Tell me that's NOT CAFE forced. Tell me that the GM two mode hybrid system in the Escalade as well as the work done on the Volt *prototypes* isn't CAFE forced."
This must be your half-assed attempt at a straw man, as this has nothing to do with my statement that I like hybrids as long as they grow from true demand (gas prices) not gov't mandate. Showing "examples" of gov't mandate does nothing to change MY FEELINGS.

"In an earlier post you said "they WON'T BE BUYING HYBRIDS until THEY MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE."
And more recently you said "people will buy all sorts of stuff despite it not making economic sense"

Again with the poorly laid out straw man. I said that MOST people that would buy hybrids for reasons other than economies already have. That appears to be 2% or less of the population. The rest will when it makes economic sense, or at least at the threshold they'll pay for green which still has a ways to go. THIS ISN'T MY THEORY, THE SALES NUMBERS SHOW IT. Those little qualifiers SOME and MOST get lost pretty quick in your mind when your making your half-assed straw man's huh?

Wow, you've got links showing that hybrids are in demand but there's not enough to go around. Gee, I wonder why. I'm sure there's not enough workers now to build them. The industry is so undercapacitized right now they just can't build enough cars, and the hybrids had to be sacrificed by the evil polluters in mgmt. You are proving your lack of knowledge again. Hybrids are built to satisfy "greenies" and for publicity that you care. They are SOLD AT LOSS or near for this. Hence, they DON'T BUILD MORE. The sales would be even lower if they sold them at normal profit levels.

The basic gist I've gotten from you as that despite your allegations of my lack of reading comprehension you don't truly understand shit, but you are a know-it-all in your mind. Let's discuss your industry, I'd only hope you have more of a clue about it than you do the auto.

What's that expression about people that can, do… etc. I guess from your "wild" economic success ("huge" house debt, shitty car, etc.) you're not quite as savvy as you think.

rlj676

*sigh*... As I've explained a few times before, it depends on what an individual's values are. Do "most people" care about the environment? I think they do. Will "most people" spend a little extra for a product to be green? I think so. Will "most people" spend a little extra money now so they won't have to spend as much down the line? I think so. How much more? Well that's a moving target that depends on the cost of fuel, other operating costs (like registration fees based on CO2 emissions in some areas),how much they drive,their environmental/political values and the affordability of the technology.

"I'd say hybrids are very specialized"

I say they aren't. What is the specialized function that a Prius offers? It basically does the same thing that every other car does... just burns less fuel and pollutes less doing it.

"I PROMISE you it's not "capacity" limiting their sales"

Posted Jan 30th 2008:Malibu, Vue hybrid Superbowl ads might not air because of low inventory
[www.autobloggreen.com]
"Ford struggling with Escape hybrid demand"
[www.hybridcarblog.com]
"There is an impeding shortage of many components used in the manufacture of hybrid cars"
[en.wikipedia.org]

5 minutes of Google searching and I've made you look like an idiot... again.

"all I can tell is you are a dick."

It's better than being a pussy I guess...

"hybrid sales will increase, but not for the jackass reasons you state"

You mean the "jackass" reasons of:
-environmental awareness
-a desire to reduce fuel costs
-a desire to stick it to big oil
-the convenience of going further on a tank of gas
-the necessity of meeting CAFE regs

Then what are the "non-Jackass" reasons hybrid sales will increase?

"I'm not anti-hybrid or anything"

I disagree.

"As long as the sales increase naturally (ie non-CAFÉ forced) they are a good thing."

You are detatched from reality. The CAFE law has passed. The GM ultra V8 has been cancelled and RWD program scaled back. Tell me that's NOT CAFE forced. Tell me that the GM two mode hybrid system in the Escalade as well as the work done on the Volt *prototypes* isn't CAFE forced.

In an earlier post you said "they WON'T BE BUYING HYBRIDS until THEY MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE."
And more recently you said "people will buy all sorts of stuff despite it not making economic sense"

Ummm... and YOU are confused about what I'M saying??!!??

petersterncan

Again you are helplessly caught up in "niche" vs segment. Niche, per Merriam Webster= specialized market. I'd say hybrids are very specialized, as are super duties. Basically sedans and ½ tons seem like the two non-niche markets I'd say. Do you own interpretation, and you are apparently offended by it. I don't care.

I still can't tell if you disagree that most people won't pay more for hybrid until it makes economic sense.

The same is true of mfg's, they don't want to produce until it makes economic sense. I PROMISE you it's not "capacity" limiting their sales in most cases, it's that they don't make money at the prices sold.

You, on the other hand, don't make sense with your "points" and all I can tell is you are a dick.

Oh, and again with your stupid comparisons of an individual doing anything-IRRELEVANT, that's no matter what cars I listed or you did makes no difference, but that is only to a rational being. Let me try to reiterate- some people will buy all sorts of stuff despite it not making economic sense, that doesn't mean those outliers mean it can be thrown out for the avg. consumer like you seem to want to think.

So, hybrid sales will increase, but not for the jackass reasons you state. The people that want them for non economic reasons and can afford them have them mostly, but sales will continue to increase (as gas does, what a coincidence) as they become more economically viable, which IS MY ENTIRE CONCEPT. So it seems you are in agreement but don't realize it. Stick to engineering or whatever you claim to do because econ and making a valid point seem to elude you.

I'm not anti-hybrid or anything, but they aren't worth their cost for the vast majority of people. As long as the sales increase naturally (ie non-CAFÉ forced) they are a good thing.

rlj676

petersterncan

Because, if the Prius is a niche, then so are many other vehicles, like the Toyota Avalon or the Ford Crown Vic or trucks that are bigger than an F350 (although I distictly recall "heavy trucks" being referred to as a 'segment'... but I guess the guys at Automotive News are wrong and YOU are right).

Personally, I always viewed a niche as something that makes up no more than a fraction of a percentage of the whole market... something like a Subaru Baja or an Ariel Atom or a Rolls Royce... cars that are sold in the hundreds or maybe a few thousand... not individual model that sells well over 160,000 units and is in a part of the market that makes up for 2-3% of the total US vehicle market.

My point is that the term "niche" does not apply to the Prius and it doesn't reflect *reality* anymore because a mid-size 4 door sedan (which happens to have an advanced powertrain), priced in the low to mid $20,000 range that sells more than 160,000 units a year (and #11 on the recent sales charts that includes trucks)is not a niche... just on the sales volume alone. Hell, ANY manual transmission car is more of a niche vehicle than the Prius...

I don't take your "Prius niche" stand as an insult, I take it as you spreading disinformation... disinformation that needs some opposition.

Now I see again that with the statement "You will in turn talk about a guy who traded a corvette for a prius"... actually I talked about PEOPLE (plural) who I know have traded SUVs (not Corvettes) for the Prius.

You've got to work on that selective memory.

But I did talk about Corvettes in the contexts of cars that *TRULY* don't make economic sense... but they still sell. Why? Maybe because there's way more to buying a car than pure payback?

Also I NEVER said the Prius was in the same segment as any truck... except in terms of price... and the fact that a truck can be substituted for a Prius (or some other hybrid) 80% of the time because 80% of truck owners just use their vehicles for commuting and shopping anyway. But you'd know that if you'd do something like *read* and *comprehend* what I wrote instead of doing a quick scan and only taking in every 3rd word.

And regarding your statement "My point that things like the Prius (FCX, Volt, most hybrids, etc) sell for a sizable premium. Most people won't pay that premium as it doesn't return it in gas savings."

So part of your point is that the Volt, a vehicle that isn't even for sale, sells for a sizable premium? And the FCX? Oh please... the FCX is being sold in the same way the GM EV1 was "sold".

And you claim to know what's going on in the auto business.

Most people won't pay the premium? As Bob Lutz said in a link I previously provided, by 2015 to 2020, people will be paying the premium BECAUSE THEY WON'T HAVE A CHOICE. THAT'S WHERE THINGS ARE HEADED.

If anything, sales of hybrids are limited by production capacity. So even the current sales numbers I provided probably are NOT an accurate depiciton as to the true number of people willing to pay the premium for a hybrid powertrain.

But you working in an "OEM Treasury" probably knew that already... LOL... Yeah right!

petersterncan

Holy crap. Maybe if you quit being so defensive about God knows what, or learned to read or laid off the selective memory shtick yourself you'd understand my point, or at least present one yourself that makes sense.

I won't define "niche" for you, I'll let Merriam-Webster: [mw1.m-w.com]

It's not some insult as you seem to mistakenly keep taking it, and becoming offended that, gasp, the Prius is a niche vehicle.

Frankly, I don't even know your point, you are just arguing that the Prius isn't a "niche" for some reason and linking pointless things and drawing comparisons to SUV's and minivans. Just because you know people who have both in NO WAY WHATSOVER makes them in the same segment, other than the segment of "things that cost $20K or more". So, even if 300K, 600K, up to 10% of the market at 1.5 million (based on this years bleak industry sales forecasts) hybrids are sold, it is still a niche, just a larger one. Hint, niche means specialized, and hybrids are a specialized market, and %10 is still hardly "mainstream" by most definitions.

So, until you present a real "point" I don't know what to respond to.

My point that things like the Prius (FCX, Volt, most hybrids, etc) sell for a sizable premium. Most people won't pay that premium as it doesn't return it in gas savings.

Here are the facts of this point:
A. Most people (90% at minimum) aren't buying hybrids.
B. Hybrids cost more than their non-hybrid counterparts.
C. It takes years to repay that price premium.

You will in turn talk about a guy who traded a corvette for a prius or that a prius is affordable, etc, but the facts lie elsewhere and your singular points or reference have no signifigance.

Plenty of people are buying Hybrids, and do it for many reasons, but for the majority of people where costs override "feeling warm and fuzzy and green" being able to give the wave to Larry David as they drive by in Cali, they WON'T BE BUYING HYBRIDS until THEY MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE.

rlj676

In the military world, SRAM is a Short Range Attack Missle.

And if you look at their name while squinting, then it could be misread for SPAM...

petersterncan

petersterncan

And I suppose I shouldn't hold my breath waiting for you to explain how vehicles with higher MSRPs and higher operating costs than the $21,100 MSRP Prius are somehow more affordable, eh?

petersterncan

But it does raise an interesting point... the gasoline engine in the Prius is still a gasoline engine and has the same emissions hurles (with the exception of CO2) as any other car.

However, I would argue that in a city driving situation, the Prius pollutes less of everything due to the fact that the engine is turned off for part of the time the car is 'running', unlike conventional cars.

petersterncan

And that data I provided was for hybrids in general...but YOU would know that if YOU knew how to read and YOU didn't have a selective memory. It means that you'll need to include more than just Prius sales... which incidentally will probably end up being much higher than 160,000 based on the most recent sales data... which I'm sure you'll ignore.

And I didn't say "The Prius will become the mainstream". And the Prius isn't the whole segment. After all, GM, Ford and Nissan have hybrids in production too. In the case of GM and Nissan, they're just starting up because they're late to the game.

What I'm telling you is that cars *like* the Prius are becoming the mainstream. And that's what I'm telling you to get used to.

But then I'm not surprised that you've once again have a selective memory as to what I said.

And I'm only comparing the cost of the Prius in terms of what people can afford. And it's a valid comparison on the basis that 80% of SUV drivers use their SUVs just for commuting and getting groceries... something the Prius is perfectly capable of. And as a matter of fact, I know of at least a few cases where somebody has traded an SUV for a Prius. I suppose you view these people as being stupid for trading in their high cost SUV (which is somehow cheaper in your fantasy world) for a same-or-lower price and much lower operating cost Prius.

All I'm saying is that if many people can afford these trucks, then they can afford the Prius.

As far as buying one for myself... I will once they are available used at low price... because as I mentioned before, I'm in the "big mortgage" stage of my life... meaning I'm not rewarding myself with *any* new car until the mortgage is gone. It's a good incentive to getting rid of debt. It has nothing to do with hypocracy (unless I drove an SUV myself... but I don't... I drive a used stick shift Saab that I got a great deal on recently), it has everything to do with sound financial planning... something that you seem to have trouble grasping.

petersterncan

From a consumer standpoint I don't really care if Toyota makes money on the Prius. I'm sure there are several other cars on the market that aren't profitable and they either become profitable, their losses are offset by other sales or the vehicle gets the axe. This is fairly common in manufacturing and sales, particularly when it involves expensive new technology and development.

No doubt, the Prius is a halo car for Toyota and gave their image a huge boost and other makes don't share in the image. Boo-frickin-hoo. I seem to recall GM wasted 2 years trashing hybrids to focus on vaporware that couldn't possibly be implemented for another 20 years. Had they worked towards short-term incremental development and a quantum technological leap years down the road, we might be talking about the Chevy Prism Hybrid instead of the Prius.

eltonito

I didn't know it was that large now.

However, the cost of the original Prius' R&D has now been amortized over many years allowing the larger car at a decent price (assuming it wasn't gov't subsidized.) This doesn't mean though that Toyota is making a single CENT of profit on this car.

Further, original Priuses (Priui?) were sold at a loss by all accounts I've seen. I'd say that was a wise investment though given Toyota's absurd green image it earned them.

None the less, it is still a niche vehicle (I'm starting to think some people need to check the dictionary on "niche", it's not some insult or anything) with limited volumes. This is most likely due to the fact that even selling at a discount of no profit -to a loss, it's still "expensive", and there is little motive to produce huge quantities.

Oh, and no matter what size (compact or midsize sedan), there is no comparison in markets between the Prius and minivans and SUV's as "somebody" is arguing.

rlj676

JantheMan

westfieldind

So that leaves us with niche car... sure, maybe. I do know that everytime I research it for a debate such as this, it becomes more appealing to me. I'm far from a Toyota person (strictly a Vee-Dub haus) but the damn car is quite impressive for $24k.

* As a matter of fact the Prius has 1cu ft. more interior room than a Chevy Malibu with the same size trunk.

eltonito

Dollarbill4

What more would you need to know?

rlj676

Can you read?

I showed you where 1% = 160K Prius/16 million vehicles. That is pretty easy to follow for most.(What's 11K times 12 smart guy= less than my figure?)

So...the Prius market is niche. Sure it's growing, but I don't see 1% as mainstream in anything and nobody reasonable would.

Likewise, the Prius is essentially it's whole segment. I can't think of any other C-class hybrids getting that great of mileage still for sale (isn't the insight gone?). The other hybrids out there are large and get just "ok" mileage.

Further, your assessment of Prius cost vs SUV cost is as asinine as the rest of your arguments.

The 21K prius competes against the Corolla, Civic, Focus, Cobalt. Please put a base price comparison together that anyone who's seen the cars will buy into.

So again, here you are arguing shit you don't grasp appearantly, and making that painfully obvious.

If you love the Prius so much to argue (poorly) about it every time it comes up, I encourage you to buy one. But, because it's too pricey, you won't. (Do I need to point out the hypocrisy here, or is it irony?)

rlj676

camp6ell

Elhigh

The Kid

1. They feel that spending money on war is more important.

2. With half the people in the country believing that American Automakers build nothing but "outdated crap" and "rolling coal factories", it wouldn't be politically correct for the gov to donate. The consensus among much of the continent seems to be that its okay for our manufacturing jobs to wither away. (because they work at Wal-Mart or some shit and it wont affect them)

danio3834

eltonito

I'm sure some North American company has some prototypes that are going into production... "soon".

petersterncan

And your 1% market share statement is detatched from something called *reality*. Back here in the real world, production has increased. It looks like hybrids are hovering around 2-3%... and last month alone almost 11,000 Prius' were sold.
[www.greencarcongress.com]

So is a car that sells 100,000+ units a "niche" model? Hence my question of what your definition of "mainstream" is.

Did you know that the Prius is now selling at higher volumes than the Ford Explorer?
[articles.moneycentral.msn.com]

But I suppose you want me to believe that the Ford Explorer is a "niche" as well, eh?

If that's true, then there aren't many cars on the market that AREN'T "niche" vehicles.

Hence my question of what your definition of "mainstream" is.

And then there's stuff like this:
[www.autobloggreen.com]

... and that makes it clear that even Bob Lutz knows that hybrids will become the new mainstream... regardless of what you or anybody else says.

And I still don't understand how you can think people can't afford a $21,100 Prius (the base list price) but they somehow can afford SUV/Truck/Van/Minivan vehicles with higher operating costs with $25,000+ base prices.

Please explain to me how a $21,000 vehicle that uses less gas is LESS affordable than a $25,000 vehicle (like a Toyota Highlander,Sienna or FJ Cruiser)

And while you're explaining that, give us all your definition of "mainstream" as it relates to cars... and keep in mind that the Prius is outselling the Explorer now.

petersterncan

Campy or die!

eltonito

Buzz Killington

Plus, the more you ride it, the lighter your total weight gets over time because of all the calories you're burning... and it's zero emissions. And if I eat a lot of cabbage as part of the refuelling process, then it becomes a source of renewable energy in the form of methane emissions.

Try that on your fat POS Honda Elite.

petersterncan

Admiral Ackbar

Or for something new, a Subaru Imprezza STI or a turbo/supercharged Lotus or an Ariel Atom would as effective or more effective at going consistently fast under the most conditions for far less money than any Ferrari or Lambo.

Ferraris and Lambos are toys for rich people.

petersterncan

No such thing as bad publicity?

rlj676

Well, appearantly to you mainstream is 1%, as that is Prius take of total market share in it's best year (160K of 16 Million units). So, same as last time, you don't know as much as you think.

You drive a car if I recall that is worth less than the Prius premium over a Corolla, so apparently MONEY DOES MATTER, even to you despite your foolish claims on here.

So, if 1% of the market is "mainstream" to you -fine, but EVERYONE else knows better.

Apparently this is your "hot button" of discussion, that the Prius is a niche vehicle, but that's reality.

So the Prius is a great option for Ed Begley's et al who can afford whatever, but many family's ABSOLUTELY can not AFFORD to pay more for a Prius if it does not save enough gas to offset that cost in their ownership of the car.

Oh, and to be more on topic, the Volt will even more so be like this. Early adopters have to pay to play.

rlj676

Like I said, I just don't understand this whole Volt thing at all. Just build it or don't build it. Why all the public drama?

brownie

What's your definition of "mainstream"?

And if someone is pissed at oil companies but still needs a 4 door car that seats 4/5 people, do you think they care whether it takes 1 year or 8 years to get a payback?

Or what about the person who's afraid fuel prices could spike even higher or has a fear that we might have 1970's style lineups at the gas station? Think that person is only considering the gasoline savings?

And if someone travels a lot, don't you think that there just might be some value to being able to go longer distances on one tank of fuel (which is one of the things I hear many VW Diesel owners love and kept them buying diesels even when fuel prices were low))?

Or what about asthma sufferers (some of which may have kids) that are concerned about the growing number of smog days... and they see a Prius that offers Diesel-like fuel economy, but with much lower emissions and less noise? Think gasoline savings are the only factor for that car buyer?

We've had this discussion before...

Cars like the Prius are becoming the new mainstream.

Get used to it.

It's not all about $ payback or comparing returns on investment.

petersterncan

If you want to go really fast and compensate for something, Corvettes, Ferraris and Lambos are logical choices.

@brownie: In 5 years I will be able to buy a Mr. Fusion and run my plug-in car on compost and cheap beer. I saw an infomercial on it a few weeks ago with that guy who played Uncle Fester in it.

I wonder, how many PBR's to the mile will the Volt get?

eltonito

You are woefully under-informed. Both on possible cost and it being "vapor-car".

Further, how would you find it so hard to believe that a COMPLETELY NEW advanced technology couldn't add $18K to a very limited volume vehicle? That'd be $1.8 B of investment over 100K cars. Not too tough to imagine.

rlj676

Car buying isn't strictly about logic. If it was, then cars like Corvettes, Ferraris and Lamborghinis would never have come into existance.

petersterncan

brownie

Secondly... you're implying that the space, comfort and noise levels for both of these car are similar. Well are they?

Thirdly... which car would you rather drive every day?

Fourth... you are in a car and are about to have an unavoidable crash. At the last second, God stops time and gives you a choice of either being in the Chevy Sprint or Toyota Prius. Which car do you choose?

(PS... I've seen Chevy Sprints involved in collisions. They're only a few grades safer than a bicycle/motorcycle... slightly safer than a golf cart).

petersterncan

brownie

But of course I could be woefully ill-informed.

brownie

Using your line of thinking, I would argue that a 75MPG - 90MPG 80's Honda Elite E proved that the Chevy Sprint was a bloated, gas guzzling piece of crap.

Prove me wrong, if your petulance will allow you to care.

eltonito

What's your point? The US manufacturers have more efficient cars in other markets as well. My point is the Japanese aren't greener than anyone (especially Toyota), in any market. Fools love to think otherwise.

@Mad_Science:

Are you implying there's ANYTHING similar to a Volt at a better price in the same time frame? It has NO competition, so as far as "be competitive or die" which you allude to I'm confused. It is ground breaking, and that isn't cheap it seems.

rlj676

Well, anytime I see a comparo in the mainstream mags, the domestics are usually right in there with milage.

For example, the C&D I just got had a $17K "35 mpg" comparo, and the Focus was I believe 3rd in milage (a sad 7th overall though) out of 8.

There is no one company in my mind who makes a dominantly efficient vehicle in each class. Things like the Prius are still too costly to be "mainstream" as they take too long to return the price premium in gas savings. Despite this, just look at these comments ripping on the domestics as in-efficient SUV producers while everyone else gets a free pass from the ignorant.

I believe the best fleet CAFÉ numbers belong to Honda, and that's because they don't make any real trucks.

@grzydj:

Green is big now, so everyone wants in on it. Again it's a perception versus reality issue. The un-informed think Toyota is the "Green God" with their ONE poster child. Meanwhile, I know for a fact that Ford not only does Ford have hybrids, the plants are some of the most environmentally responsible. Wayne runs on energy from clean burnt waste or something like that, Dearborn truck has a green roof, some crazy water filtering parking lot, etc. I'll assume other OEM's beside Toyota do things like this as well. People are unaware of all of this type of stuff and have without real knowledge declared Japanese=green, USA=dirty pollutin SUV's.

rlj676

The problem is, it's clear he's just looking for an excuse to ditch it, or claim that it was doomed by external factors.

I use the phrase "I'm not interested in problems, I'm interested in solutions" as a sort of in-character middle-manager response to things sometimes.

In this case, I'd like to apply it to Lutz for real. Bob: if GM can't make competitive cars that get competitive mileage, your company will be dead.

Mad_Science

brownie

GM can't put money in the bank by asking you to go out and buy a 20 year old Chevy Sprint, neither can Toyota or any other auto maker. The sad fact is, it wasn't until a few short years ago that anybody started caring about fuel economy at all, which is why the Sprint and similar sized cars didn't sell very well in the first place.

Now with fuel costs soaring and green credibility creeping along with it, people want a vehicle that provides the luxuries that they're accustomed to, and they want decent fuel mileage to boot.

Toyota or GM or whoever could produce a tin box on wheels with no features that gets 50 mpg or better tomorrow but they couldn't sell it not only because nobody wouldn't buy it, but because it would be impossible with mandatory safety equipment etc. You're not even making sense.

grzydj

drewheyman

sos10

Bluegoose

stopcrazypp

And I agree wholeheartedly with your closing remark.

@rlj676: I'd love to see some segment by segment, head to head research to compare the big 2.5 versus the Asians on MPG. I don't doubt Toyota has rolled new products into not-quite-green segments, but how do they compare in those segments to existing products?

eltonito

As for Chrysler being bailed out, the government didn't hand them any money - they only guaranteed the loans. Chrysler paid them back before they were even due.

Chrysler, before Daimler's rape/pillage/squander, was easily the most progressive US automaker.

abgwin

MZЯ

Ignoring the rest of the details on why it is a shitty comparison, I'd much rather have the Prius in the event of a crash or the need to climb a long hill and keep up with traffic. Having owned a 3cyl subcompact from the 80's, I'd be hard pressed to ever want to drive one again despite my love of small cars.

eltonito

You're comparing a sub-compact with rollup windows to a mid sized family sedan with every single safety feature and convenience known to mankind crammed into it.

grzydj

anaxomander

@Isetta: Especially Nissan, since they're paying Toyota to license the technology for the Altima Hybrid.

Hyman Decent

Sequoia
Highlander
Tundra

and Prius.

Seems like more of their R&D is going towards building US-style SUVs than saving the world. You could throw the Yaris in there, but it's more of a redesigned Echo with a name change. They didn't enter any new market area there.

JHJVJR

2008 Chevrolet Sprint ER:
3 cyl, 1.0 L, Manual 5-spd, Regular 44 53

2007 Toyota Prius: MPG (city) 48 MPG (highway) 45
MPG (combined) 46

Bluegoose

You seem to be under the impression that GM, Ford and Chrysler... and the rest of the auto industry aren't positioning themselves as the greenest car makers on the planet.

grzydj

Yeah, the Japanese are the ONLY ones who've been working on better fuel milage, and ignoring "those evil profitable SUV's". Do you clowns even know at all the rest of Toyota's lineup? Cuz there certainly are no SUV/trucks's in it? (wait, what's this Tundra, it must be a fuel sipping super tech 35 mpg truck.) Outside of the Prius, there isn't some big mpg improvement in japanese cars compared to their domestic competition.

The ignorance of people and Toyota's success at appearing "green" just with the Prius blows my mind.

rlj676

NovaloadMissesPolar

As far as Reserch grants the US car makers have all ready recieved 1.5 Billon from the tax payers to build the hybrid see the 1990's Supercar, PNGV program. Toyota originaly wanted to take part in the program improve the competitiveness of the us car makers. Toyota beleved they were serious and built there own hybrid.

I the US carmakers goals were to delay CAFE laws from changing, once it came time to put up or shut up on the Hybrid.. The car makers sold the goverement on the next pie in the sky idea of hydrogen cars (aka the FREDOM car)

All I can say is the japanese goverment is luckey in they get value for there investment where as the united states just gets more debt.

overtech

They were making Expresso...

Yeah, I'd want to the Government to invest in a car that
looks like it was carved out of a block of processed cheese.

POLAЯ

weatherman

[en.wikipedia.org]
Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles
The US spent about $1.5 billion on this program, exclusively with Ford, GM, and Chrysler.

Let's see...this resulted in the 72 mpg ESX-3 for Chrysler, [en.wikipedia.org] and the 80 mpg GM Precept [en.wikipedia.org] back in 2000 or so. And how is it that the Big Three are somehow behind on hybrid technology? Oh year - they were too busy building SUV's back then.

saabophile2

I think you need a Dr Pepper.

[www.billboard.com]

grzydj

But it something with government fundings and peoples car..they attend to sell in large numbers independent of left or right.

Beetle
Trabant
Lada
Prius

JantheMan

No more bitching, no more whining, be a good little car company and do what you should have done all along: STFU and give us jalops the cars we want.

oneswellfoop

deckard97

And yeah, I'd agree that American automakers would probably muck it up.

It's a good case for research grants.

badco/LoJ

So...

How about a 2500lb, 120hp car? Won't that have good performance, 35+mpg's, and be under $46k?

Stop wasting effort on damping the motion of my glovebox door, engineering proper door closing sound, and integrating bluetooth, handsfree, butt-cheek-shape-sensitive autostart, and just build a reasonably sized car with AC and power windows.

It'll solve all of our problems

Feds

LandofID