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Detroit, 6:22 AM
Mon Nov 9
7 posts in the last 24 hours
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10/14/09
By whom? The reason to use more efficient transport is very specifically the contribution of gas guzzlers to global warming. It's entirely coincidental that we may be running low on certain fossil fuels at the same time as our activities increased the level of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases to levels not seen for at least 400,000 years.
Many politicians are hoping that peak oil has arrived so that energy prices will rise to make less-polluting alternatives more appealing, thus absolving them of having to pass tough legislation (most politicians have endorsed 80% carbon cuts by 2050, BECAUSE BY THEN THEY'LL BE DEAD AND OUT OF OFFICE). I think it's more likely every increase in the use of renewables and reduction in inefficiency will be accompanied by lower fossil fuel prices. The oil industry isn't stupid.
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
Plastics anyone? You like plastic? That's oil.
10/14/09
Like it or not, peak oil is a reality. The actual time-frame is what the real issue is about. This isn't being alarmist or scare-mongering. Rather, it's coming from a paeleontological and biological fact. There were a finite number of pre-historic plants that became the oil we use today. And, unless we manage to figure out how to speed up billions of years of geologic processes, we aren't getting more oil. Once it's gone, it's gone.
So, natural gas for 60 years? Same problem. We cannot simply make more. As for unconventional sources of nat gas. Usually that refers to extraction processes that create huge environmental problems (contaminated surface and sub-surface water being the biggest issue).
If we want to continue having loud, fast, fun cars we need to figure out a) how to manufacture plastics without dipping into the crude oil supplies b) power our daily transportation on something other than gasoline or nat gas and c) implement massive solar projects for electricity generation.
Do I want to be able to drive my grandkids (in 20 or so years time) around on the weekends in a 409 powered, 1940 Ford Deluxe? Absolutely. Would I make the choice to live as green today in order to help ensure that will happen? Already am.
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
CNG, LPG, Ethanol, Methanol, vegetable oil, gengas, hydrogen, gasoline, diesel and electricity can all work together to make the future of transportation diverse and viable (as they are). They will be implemented where they are best suited as dictated by market demands.
There is no reason walk away from oil or coal or any other cheap, plentiful resource.
People should not be denied reasonably priced energy.
If you're into worrying or panicking about things, this shouldn't be at the top of your list.
10/14/09
10/14/09
All this wind turbine and solar stuff is subsidized. ie, not profitable. Yet anyway. Who knows if it ever will be.
10/14/09
So a political reporter wildly speculates on a subject he is not an expert in. You pick out the most provocative angle but don't acknowledge all of his caveats.
I'm not a peak oil fundamentalist, but I do think that there is an upper limit to affordable fossil fuels. In one fashion or another the auto industry needs to deal with it. Why not sooner rather than later?
You seem to want to frame it in stark, black/white terms: Either they take all of our toys away or we get to keep doing exactly what we have been. That may be effective propaganda to the less educated, but it's completely bogus logic.
At any rate, if there are indeed 60 years left of gas reserves, that means you've dumped the problem onto your children and grandchildren. I get that we auto gearheads are supposed to be overgrown teenagers, but is that something that any caring parent would choose to do?
10/14/09
No, I want it framed in sober, honest discussion. Screaming the "sky is falling" when clearly there are huge reserves of natural resources available is intellectually dishonest. As I stated in the post, argue the environmental benefits of moving off of fuel oil all you want, we don't really care where the power turning the wheels comes from, but using peak oil (which is a lazy way of saying "peak natural energy resources") to frame the discussion is asinine.
10/14/09
10/14/09
I think you need to do some research, plastic does not just come from petroleum. It can also be made from other organic compounds.
[www.naturalgas.org]
10/14/09
10/15/09
Though I'm sure they will figure out decent non-oil plastics soon enough. #ifeelgassy
10/14/09
10/14/09
Do people even realize the sun is almost halfway through it's 10 billion year life! We're reaching the end here people!!
10/14/09
If all that fails, we can just harness all the energy from the Big Oil supporters who seemingly believe the end is not near. The truth of the matter is that there is an end to Big Oil.
We have 9 examples in our solar system capable of receiving sunlight. There are robots on Mars thriving because of it. Fossil fuels only work on ONE planet specifically because of oxygen. The machines we use, which make the air worse, are in *direct* competition of the air we need to breathe.
We need to be more resourceful and innovative with how we create the electrical energy we need. Just taking a look around should bring to light that what we need is electricity...clean electricity, not fossil fuel. There may not be a Peak to Oil but there will be a peak to humankind and all life on earth if we choke it to death with our industries. Deforestation of our rainforests, chemicals polluting our oceans and overpopulation will only hasten the matter. There are 8 examples in our solar system which have no significant water, no oxygen, and no life.
I love the sound of a ZR1 but that doesn't mean it belongs in the future. Cars of tomorrow should be a part of the cycle of life...not something that breaks it. If not you might as well hold your breath...because that what it will be like.
10/14/09
10/14/09
So it makes sense to invest in those replacement technologies AND in gasguzzlers, so those replacement technologies become cheaper even faster, and will be adopted sooner. Right?
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
Arguing peak oil as a reason to change the basic energy source of the world's transportation, and by extension completely remaking the entire geopolitical and economic landscape of the planet, is no more intellectually honest than crying wolf.
If you want electric cars, or CNG cars, or comressed hydrogen cars, or unicorn fart cars - build them. Build them and make them better than any gasoline car on the market. Make them cheaper, safer, more fun and easier to live with than gasoline cars.
Build a better mousetrap and consumers will buy it. Blathering all day about how evil and wasteful gasoline cars are will get you to approximately the same position we're at right now, except thirty years from now, when the world's once again gone through the cycle or fuel hysteria, government posturing, technical advancement, innovative but highly flawed products, complete failure, and a public that returns to normal after losing interest or perhaps just getting tired of all the hot air.
10/14/09
yeah! like crossovers! and hulking SUVs! all clearly better because of being boughten.
10/14/09
10/14/09
That's the most sensible explanation I've heard yet. Thank you, Ben.
Innovation for the sake of innovation is not innovation, just like being different for the sake of being different is pointless.
If (when?) the day ever comes that ICE cars go the way of the dodo, I will lament their passing deeply. But I do recognize that, bound by the laws of physics as we are, the ICE's full potential is drawing nigh. It's time for the next phase of power generation. Personally, I'm hoping for hydrogen fuel cells.
10/14/09
Actually I've wondered a few times why the govt just doesn't mandate a set percentage of cars that have to be CNG compatible - kind of like CAFE. Within 5-10 years the whole country could be full of hooning V8's without sending a red cent to the middle east. As it is, only a couple of city buses are CNG powered.
I woudln't worry too much about Peak Oil. The biggest impact it has on peoples lives is that they worry too much, and some guys get to sell worry-books talking about it. The technology exists to send a man to the freakin' moon. We can develop other stuff to power our cars. It can be done with current technology : a couple more nuclear plants and battery electrics, and there you go.
Just remember, a bit over 100 years ago there was no oil industry to speak of. Karl Benz's wife bought her petroleum at a pharmacy to make the first decent road trip. These things can all be overcome as long as a free market is kept, and the person with the breakthrough tech gets to keep the profits.
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
I agree regarding political posts, but this is no different than a post about a laptop battery shortage on a computer blog.
By the look of the comments so far, this must not be a political post.
10/14/09
@Ben: Thanks for the link. Interesting.
10/14/09
10/14/09
There is no content about cars in that sentence (or any of the rest).
There are at least three political statements, all of which aggressively advocate one ideological position:
1) Those Evil People worried about oil want to take away my sporty car.
2) Those Evil People worried about oil want me to use mass transit.
3) Mass transit is a Bad Thing.
I could argue how all three of those are shortsighted and simplistic (and mostly wrong), but I don't feel like taking on the entire readership of Jalopnik. If I wanted to get into a huge argument with everyone on a site, I'd go troll RedState.
10/14/09
10/14/09
The article starts off by explaining that oil wells are not giant caverns filled with Texas tea, but rather very rocky veins which oil flows through. The oil then begins to deplete, but, as new oil rigs with better technology make there way into the field, we can get some of that lost oil that we couldn't get with the previous generations of pumps and drills. Thus making current predictions meaningless.
So the next pumps could increase the life of a well previously though to be empty by another 20 years.
10/14/09