The folks at the 800-pound gorilla net car consumer site known as Edmunds who divine reality from the tea leaves of economic numbers and rumors to produce monthly auto sales predictions believe the whole "housing market" and "subprime mortgages" issues are somehow going to mean August US auto sales are going to be down year-to-year. Specifically, to the tune of somewhere around 4.5%. That's a prediction of 1.42 million units sold here in the US, still an 8.7% uptick from the sales numbers of just a month prior. While not always spot on, Edmunds did have a fairly good track record with last month's forecast, picking the correct directional move for five of the top six automakers. For some reason they thought Chrysler'd show a move up. But really, who would have known they'd show some sales instability due to you know, being sold and all? Full release from Edmunds below the jump — and we'll be here all day at the auto sales tag, so keep watching those brightly colored arrows.
Edmunds.com Forecasts August Auto Sales: Housing Market Suppresses Consumer Demand for Autos
SANTA MONICA, Calif.—This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1.42 million units, a 4.5 percent decrease from August 2006 and an 8.7 percent increase from July 2007, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.
"Early in August, sales were dismal. To generate showroom traffic, most automakers introduced incentives programs midway through the month," observed Jesse Toprak, Executive Director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. "That effort was relatively successful, but the uncertainty in the housing market is likely to continue suppressing consumer demand for new vehicles for some time."
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 49.6 percent in August 2007, down from 53.5 percent in August 2006 but up slightly from 49.4 percent in July 2007.
"Automakers here in Detroit are quietly wondering how bad it is going to get — and whether the picture will improve in 2008," commented Michelle Krebs, Senior Editor of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "Executives will be facing some tough decisions, given the economic trends and the impending union contract negotiations."
Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 163,000 units in August 2007, down 9.2 percent compared to August 2006 but up 18.1 percent from July 2007. This would result in a new car market share of 11.5 percent for Chrysler in August 2007, down from 12.1 percent in August 2006 and up from 10.6 percent in July 2007.
Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 211,000 units in August 2007, down 15.6 percent compared to August 2006 and up from 10.9 percent from July 2007. This would result in a market share of 14.9 percent of new car sales in August 2007 for Ford, down from 16.8 percent in August 2006 but up slightly from 14.6 percent in July 2007.
Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 330,000 units in August 2007, down 9.5 percent compared to August 2006 but up 4.4 percent from July 2007. GM's market share is expected to be 23.3 percent of new vehicle sales in August 2007, down from 24.6 percent in August 2006 and down from 24.2 percent in July 2007.
Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 160,000 units in August 2007, up 5.6 percent from August 2006 and up 13.3 percent from July 2007. Its market share is expected to be 11.3 percent in August 2007, up from 10.2 percent in August 2006 and up from 10.8 percent in July 2007.
Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 93,000 units in August 2007, up 3 percent from August 2006 and up 5.3 percent from July 2007. Nissan's market share is expected to be 6.5 percent in August 2007, up from 6.1 percent in August 2006 and down slightly from 6.7 percent in July 2007.
Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 245,000 units in August 2007, up 1.9 percent from August 2006 and up 9.2 percent from July 2007. Toyota's market share is expected to be 17.3 percent in August 2007, up from 16.2 percent in August 2006 up slightly from 17.2 percent in July 2007.
About Edmunds Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/)
Edmunds Inc. publishes four Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive consumer information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its most popular feature, the Edmunds.com True Market Value®, is relied upon by millions of people seeking current transaction prices for new and used vehicles. Edmunds.com was named "Best Car Research Site" by Forbes ASAP, has been selected by consumers as the "Most Useful Web Site" according to every J.D. Power and Associates New Autoshopper.com Study(SM), was ranked first in the Survey of Car-Shopping Web Sites by The Wall Street Journal and was rated "#1" in Keynote's study of third-party automotive Web sites. Inside Line launched in 2005 and is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. CarSpace launched in 2006 and is an automotive social networking Web site and home to the oldest and most established automotive community. AutoObserver.com launched in 2007 and provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit.