Bear Stearns Predicts February US Auto Sales Are Sucktastic, Like January

Here's the latest across the wires from Bear Stearns, we're assuming that means it was their auto analyst stud, Peter Nesvold, but regardless of who it was — here's their official guesstimate on what sales numbers will look like for the "Big Three" for the month ending tomorrow:

Bear Stearns previews February Auto Sales

Bear Stearns notes Feb auto sales data are due out Thursday. They expect the SAAR to be down 3% y/y with Feb 2006 (vs. a 4% y/y decrease in Jan). Among the Big Three, they expect GM, F, and DCX to be down 7%, 15%, and 7% y/y in Feb, respectively (vs. down 20%, 23%, and 4% in Jan). Firm says there's no impact to their y/y comparisons from selling days this month. Their biggest focus will be on...

...F's retail market share and GM's ATPs. Firm says one potential headwind for the month could be an uptick in industry inventories among several Asian OEMs. This could indicate that industry sales are slowing. Alternatively, they say the negative impact could be limited to domestic automakers if the Asian OEMs react by increasing incentives significantly.
Well, yeah — when you're getting your ass kicked, the competition dropping prices ain't going to help so much, would it? [Hat tip to Kevin!] – Ray Wert

Related:
December To Forget? Report Forecasts Downturn In December Sales For US Automakers, Big Boost In Luxury Sales [internal]